A southward shift in Erin’s track has led to an increase in risk for the northern Caribbean Islands, though a direct hit in the United States is unlikely.

Tropical storm Erin is forecast to become the first major Atlantic hurricane of the year, and it could bring dangerous weather to the East. Here’s what to know. The first Atlantic hurricane of the year could be upon us.

For now, most reliable computer models that meteorologists use show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast later in August.